alisa
01-21 11:13 AM
Assuming everyone stays the course, under these timelines
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
1. At least 5% of applicants will be sponsored by their American children.
2. Another 5% will have their first million and move to the investor's category.
The timelines would be a maximum of 20 years or so, at which point people would be sponsored by their children.
Ok. So thats a 10 percent decrease in accumulation rate.
Lets add another 10 percent decrease to that. These will be 10 percent that commit suicide, suffer a lay-off, or just pack up and go back.
So, the accumulation rate decreases to 15600, the initial backlogs from 2001, and 2002 also decreased to 80 percent their currently assumed values. Following are the results. Good news. Wait time decreases. Bad news, you still have to send your dependents back as we are not counting them.
The timelines are now less than 20 years.
For India. (ROW wait times are less than 5-10 years anyway according to this model)
YApp YC(New) YC(Old)
2001 2011 2013
2002 2015 2018
2003 2016 2020
2004 2018 2022
2005 2020 2024
2006 2021 2026
2007 2023 2028
2008 2024 2030
2009 2026 2032
2010 2027 2034
In anycase, there is a point to this exercise.
I don't want to pull numbers out of my ass. I want to make a good faith effort in estimating what the wait times would be with things being the way they are. A reasonable model should show that for Indians, the situation is hopeless. For others, the situation is painful. The current model shows that. I just want to give this some time, and get the best feedback and incorporate that in it.
Maybe, then I will be able to convince people (especially from India) to get active, and stop being ignoramuses asking innocently 'Oh! Is the situation really that bad?'
If anyone has any ideas on modelling EB-2 vs EB-3 for India, that would also be helpful. Given some data, simple math should give us good enough estimates.
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Rajeev
02-04 10:50 AM
We will all meet at the Bridgewater temple Cafeteria tomorrow, that is, 02/03/2007 at 11.00 PM. I will get the flyers with me. We will be doing a black and white text on colored paper as that costs 9 cents/page compared to colored text on colored paper that costs 89 cents/page. Please be there on time.
Address for the temple is:
780 old Farm Road,
Bridgewater,
NJ 08807
Thanks,
Varsha
How did it go?
Address for the temple is:
780 old Farm Road,
Bridgewater,
NJ 08807
Thanks,
Varsha
How did it go?
desi3933
01-30 02:27 PM
Ok now I am confused. I was laid off while in India. Since I could not then use my H1 to reenter, I used the AP. So my I-94 is stamped as AOS. Are you saying this was not a lawful admission? Are you implying that from the time I entered the US on AP (Dec till date) is unlawful?
It is my fault. I should have explained it better.
The immigration laws are very confusion. Entry on AP is legal entry and it is ok, but it is not considered as lawful entry for I-485 approval process ONLY. For last lawful entry, USCIS looks for last entry on non-immigrant visa.
Hope that helps.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
It is my fault. I should have explained it better.
The immigration laws are very confusion. Entry on AP is legal entry and it is ok, but it is not considered as lawful entry for I-485 approval process ONLY. For last lawful entry, USCIS looks for last entry on non-immigrant visa.
Hope that helps.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
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feedfront
09-17 09:58 AM
Anyone received RFE letter? I've not received it yet.
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bang
03-08 10:17 PM
Please let me know who wants to travel .. i can book a ticket for you ... please reply with your details i will contact you
gcinprogress
06-10 05:16 PM
Sent. Also added my friends.
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abhijitp
07-24 12:15 PM
I'm not expert in advising but murthy.com is saying avoid duplicate filing that may lead to rejection. Would suggest to consult v.good attorney before you do.
I have seen that on murthy too. I am not sure why they say that. Anyone else who ever submitted multiple AOS applications?
I am sure people have submitted two separate apps in cases such as:
1) both husband and wife working and eligible to file. One app submitted with husband primary, wife secondary AND the other app submitted with wife primary, husband secondary
2) AOS for old labor + AOS under PERM
In both cases I believe the USCIS will ask you to choose between the two when the time comes.
I have seen that on murthy too. I am not sure why they say that. Anyone else who ever submitted multiple AOS applications?
I am sure people have submitted two separate apps in cases such as:
1) both husband and wife working and eligible to file. One app submitted with husband primary, wife secondary AND the other app submitted with wife primary, husband secondary
2) AOS for old labor + AOS under PERM
In both cases I believe the USCIS will ask you to choose between the two when the time comes.
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saiimmi
03-21 11:13 PM
Optimystic!
Did you see any LUDs on your 485 over the past few months?
Thanks,
Yes, I should have !! Its been a loooong Journey.
I was stuck in backlog till Dec 06.
Got I-140 approved in Jan 07.
Then due to the lazy As*****s at the immigration firm that our company hires, who should have applied my I-485 in June 07 itself when my PD became current, but kept on procrastinating until got hit by July 2 fiasco. They didn't even were prepared to file on July 2nd nor on July 17 (though they had all papers from my end).
Finally they applied I-485 on July 29th. (recpt dt: July 30th 07)
Now my PD is current again in March and April...so finally I am getting somewhere near (hopefully)
So first the backlog screwed me , then the attorneys, then the July 2 fiasco (making everything 'U' and then making everthing 'c' thus causing this whole another backlog again! )
Anyway no hard feelings towards people benifitted by July 2 fiasco and who atleast got EADs. I hope I dont have to wait much longer :)
Did you see any LUDs on your 485 over the past few months?
Thanks,
Yes, I should have !! Its been a loooong Journey.
I was stuck in backlog till Dec 06.
Got I-140 approved in Jan 07.
Then due to the lazy As*****s at the immigration firm that our company hires, who should have applied my I-485 in June 07 itself when my PD became current, but kept on procrastinating until got hit by July 2 fiasco. They didn't even were prepared to file on July 2nd nor on July 17 (though they had all papers from my end).
Finally they applied I-485 on July 29th. (recpt dt: July 30th 07)
Now my PD is current again in March and April...so finally I am getting somewhere near (hopefully)
So first the backlog screwed me , then the attorneys, then the July 2 fiasco (making everything 'U' and then making everthing 'c' thus causing this whole another backlog again! )
Anyway no hard feelings towards people benifitted by July 2 fiasco and who atleast got EADs. I hope I dont have to wait much longer :)
more...
bmoni
08-12 04:48 PM
All Eb3 please follow the thread http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1599562-team-visa-allocation-by-dos-8.html#post1978863 . They need help looks like we may be onto something...it will be benefit everyone most important EB3.
Don't be disappointed.
We are focusing on another thread right now.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1599562-team-visa-allocation-by-dos.html
Please post your ideas on this thread.
Don't be disappointed.
We are focusing on another thread right now.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/1599562-team-visa-allocation-by-dos.html
Please post your ideas on this thread.
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tinamatthew
07-24 01:02 PM
There is no doubt the employer letter is required.
The only question is:
1) is it safer to wait for RN and then submit this letter as evidence quoting the A# assigned, I think that would be wise for a concurrenly filed application. My lawyer said that if its concurrently filed, the letter accompanying the i-140 is sufficient and 2 letters are not required. But if the i-485 is on it own then an employment letter must accompany the form. OR
2) is it a better idea to submit a new I-485 rightaway along with the letter, What is reasoning behind this. Are you expecting a rejection? Why not wait for the RN and then send in the letter? Have you spoken to your lawyer?OR
3) should such people just wait hoping they will receive an RFE (I don't like this one at all) whenever the case is opened? For initial evidence items I believed that it would be automatically rejected if not included, HOWEVER, with the new press release from USCIS on July 23, if i-485s WITHOUT medical reports will be accepted, then what is an employment letter?
This is my 2c, but pls confirm with lawyer :)
The only question is:
1) is it safer to wait for RN and then submit this letter as evidence quoting the A# assigned, I think that would be wise for a concurrenly filed application. My lawyer said that if its concurrently filed, the letter accompanying the i-140 is sufficient and 2 letters are not required. But if the i-485 is on it own then an employment letter must accompany the form. OR
2) is it a better idea to submit a new I-485 rightaway along with the letter, What is reasoning behind this. Are you expecting a rejection? Why not wait for the RN and then send in the letter? Have you spoken to your lawyer?OR
3) should such people just wait hoping they will receive an RFE (I don't like this one at all) whenever the case is opened? For initial evidence items I believed that it would be automatically rejected if not included, HOWEVER, with the new press release from USCIS on July 23, if i-485s WITHOUT medical reports will be accepted, then what is an employment letter?
This is my 2c, but pls confirm with lawyer :)
more...
StarSun
02-10 11:35 AM
Can anyone suggest hotels and/or if already booked can you post those hotel name & locations?
Also, just a suggestion, this thread is getting complicated as far as matching donors with travelers is concerned... May be create a Google spreadsheet with all the donors (miles, accommodations) and match them with travelers from just one central location?
Need a volunteer to coordinate the air miles. Please contact me.
Also, just a suggestion, this thread is getting complicated as far as matching donors with travelers is concerned... May be create a Google spreadsheet with all the donors (miles, accommodations) and match them with travelers from just one central location?
Need a volunteer to coordinate the air miles. Please contact me.
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JunRN
08-19 04:03 AM
To understand the Visa bulletin, one must first understand that it is not the USCIS that computes or post VB, it is the DOS. DOS also considers those undergoing consular processing. In this case, the dates are in favor of those doing CP as we all know that most of those who are qualified to apply for AOS have already applied.
Retrogression is a CP-friendly event.
Retrogression is a CP-friendly event.
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svr_76
02-19 01:28 PM
When/(and IF) this bill is passed....DHS/USCIS will be flooded with 12 million (some say 20 million) + all of the EB & FB applicant already in process.
So, it will further push the retrogression from 2015 AD (current backlogs) to 100 A.K. (After Kaliyug) :-)
So, it will further push the retrogression from 2015 AD (current backlogs) to 100 A.K. (After Kaliyug) :-)
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greenlight
08-17 04:15 PM
A1: If you have an approved I-140 for the earlier PD, the answer is yes.
A2: You do not have to refile 485. Apply for PERM and get a new 140 for this PERM substituting your earlier PD. Now you will have an EB2 I-140 with the 2004 PD. There is an option to replace the 140 for an already filed 485. Just do that and you are all set.
Thanks for your response. ;)
So will AOD processing for EB-2 be a lot faster than EB-3 as long as I capture the PD of 12/04?
A2: You do not have to refile 485. Apply for PERM and get a new 140 for this PERM substituting your earlier PD. Now you will have an EB2 I-140 with the 2004 PD. There is an option to replace the 140 for an already filed 485. Just do that and you are all set.
Thanks for your response. ;)
So will AOD processing for EB-2 be a lot faster than EB-3 as long as I capture the PD of 12/04?
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indio0617
11-20 09:20 AM
Probably, at this moment it might still be true but the reality is that it is soon going to be demoted from this position......so there is nothing like missing the opportunity....!!!!
VERY TRUE...
VERY TRUE...
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JalwaeJana
11-12 04:16 PM
If EB2 I becomes current , who benefits its EB3 I as the spillover will go EB3 India as India is the most retrogressed country. Our effort does not impact ROW EB2 as they are current any way. EB2 China will also benefit as spill over will help them. So supporting quarterly spillover is in EB3 India's. Make EB2 C and all over flow goes to EB3 I. Finally by opposing this it will not help EB3 I any way unless it makes you happy to see everybody suffer as long as you are suffering.
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Humhongekamyab
03-09 02:13 PM
lol..dont say 2019..my PD is almost same as yours and I aint hanging around till 2019..by that time I will be old and no idea what will I do with..GC..probaly hope for citizenship and apply for retirement benefits :confused::confused::confused:
Edit: Never mind..yours is EB3..so may be mine will come in 2015
If your kids were born in the US then maybe they will be able to file for you by then and that will be definitely faster than EB-3. :D
Edit: Never mind..yours is EB3..so may be mine will come in 2015
If your kids were born in the US then maybe they will be able to file for you by then and that will be definitely faster than EB-3. :D
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larun
06-12 08:36 AM
Done
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vagish
04-04 03:57 PM
If you want a good discussion on a topic stop generalizing things and do not use rants like racist engineers etc. When you make an assumption please be clear about. You have assumed most people work for consulting companies and most people are frustrated with it. Not so. I don't work for them and I am not frustrated with them. My only concern with them is they are exploiting the system to their advantage and at my cost. This has two fold affect not only the take cut from your salary but also put a bad name to H1B visa program in general. Whoever wrote the bill or whatever are the consequences there is definitely some good things in that bill. Let me list out how some provisions are good:
1. If you are employable in US and you have the skills you will get the job with or without these middlemen. They come into picture only because they can start a corporation and then start the exploitation game. If a bill is taking these guys out what's wrong with it ? This will allow genuine corporations to hire the right candidates.
2. Putting 30 days of ad. to hire US citizens first ? What's wrong with it ? If their skills are really outdated and you are the best and the brightest you will get the job.
If you need more evidence of why H1B program needs reform look no further than H1B cap used up on first day. This has put good undue hard ship for good candidates while Infosys/Wipro etc will once again take the lion's share of H1B numbers. Why do you want them to win at your cost ? Stop calling people affected by this mess as "Racist Engineers". Try to put yourself in their shoes and some of these practices are affecting both the H1B visa holders (with indentured servitude) and citizens with wage depression. No body wins in the end but the people who are exploiting the system.
completely agree.
1. If you are employable in US and you have the skills you will get the job with or without these middlemen. They come into picture only because they can start a corporation and then start the exploitation game. If a bill is taking these guys out what's wrong with it ? This will allow genuine corporations to hire the right candidates.
2. Putting 30 days of ad. to hire US citizens first ? What's wrong with it ? If their skills are really outdated and you are the best and the brightest you will get the job.
If you need more evidence of why H1B program needs reform look no further than H1B cap used up on first day. This has put good undue hard ship for good candidates while Infosys/Wipro etc will once again take the lion's share of H1B numbers. Why do you want them to win at your cost ? Stop calling people affected by this mess as "Racist Engineers". Try to put yourself in their shoes and some of these practices are affecting both the H1B visa holders (with indentured servitude) and citizens with wage depression. No body wins in the end but the people who are exploiting the system.
completely agree.
thomachan72
07-05 04:46 PM
Money never, never comes last, IMHO. Money does have its place right beside grass root efforts. Any one who undermines either of them at any time is making a huge mistake.
I am scratching my head to figure out how IV benefits with non paying members? If you say that by being a member of IV, we have done the honors, I have no answer for you. If you say that we all boast about being a 15K member org, You can pass on me. Are you a proponent of "I dont care how IV benefits from me, All that I care for is if I got my question answered or not " thought process? As long as we see IV only as a forum and compare with other forums, we will never see the invaluable difference. while eulogizing the founders, also try to see what they would like us to do. I am positive they would love more contributions than a simple eulogy so that we can enable ourselves with more ammo. Thanks for the undeserved pat. I will be happy if people take a moment and introspect their stand on this issue.
Friend I dont disagree with you regarding the value of money but we should think in the context of the current situation, right? The CIR is gone for now. It may / may not come back in 2009, who knows. Now we have the 485 filing crisis. You said we have 15000 members. How many of these are actually affected by the current crisis?? I can tell about one person, myself, certainly I am not affected directly. Now if lets say 20% are affected that would be 3000, right? Do you know how many people applied for 485 this time, it certainly is in the 100K or much more numbers. Now if we start being very critical of the few here (approx 3000), who have not contributed, we are making a mistake. I may be completely wrong on these numericals. Lets hope everybody contributes (if IV actually needs fund urgently). Atleast regarding the present crisis we are fortunate the AILF is taking up the case for FREE. People who want to contribute can through IV or even directly. I dont think contribution is going to make a difference here. This is not a lobbying effort involving the pattonbog, this is a legal case in which we are just joining.
I am scratching my head to figure out how IV benefits with non paying members? If you say that by being a member of IV, we have done the honors, I have no answer for you. If you say that we all boast about being a 15K member org, You can pass on me. Are you a proponent of "I dont care how IV benefits from me, All that I care for is if I got my question answered or not " thought process? As long as we see IV only as a forum and compare with other forums, we will never see the invaluable difference. while eulogizing the founders, also try to see what they would like us to do. I am positive they would love more contributions than a simple eulogy so that we can enable ourselves with more ammo. Thanks for the undeserved pat. I will be happy if people take a moment and introspect their stand on this issue.
Friend I dont disagree with you regarding the value of money but we should think in the context of the current situation, right? The CIR is gone for now. It may / may not come back in 2009, who knows. Now we have the 485 filing crisis. You said we have 15000 members. How many of these are actually affected by the current crisis?? I can tell about one person, myself, certainly I am not affected directly. Now if lets say 20% are affected that would be 3000, right? Do you know how many people applied for 485 this time, it certainly is in the 100K or much more numbers. Now if we start being very critical of the few here (approx 3000), who have not contributed, we are making a mistake. I may be completely wrong on these numericals. Lets hope everybody contributes (if IV actually needs fund urgently). Atleast regarding the present crisis we are fortunate the AILF is taking up the case for FREE. People who want to contribute can through IV or even directly. I dont think contribution is going to make a difference here. This is not a lobbying effort involving the pattonbog, this is a legal case in which we are just joining.
EdenMN
02-19 05:04 PM
As we know this bill won't surive due to current economic conditions...How about making it attrcative by adding 5k fees if person wants GC staying more than 5years
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